SportsProf

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Thursday, June 04, 2009

Why the Phillies Won't Trade for the Padres' Chris Young

Yes, he has a great story. Played basketball at Princeton, turned down a contract with the Sacramento Kings (or at least used the Kings' offer as leverage to get a good multi-year deal in the majors), has pitched well for the Padres after being in several other organizations (Expos, Pirates, Rangers) and can hit too (going into last night's game was hitting .300). But, no, Princeton residents, Princetonians who live in the Philadelphia area and Princetonians generally, I doubt that the Phillies will trade for Chris Young.

Yes, he's a righty, yes, he's still relatively young, yes, he hides the ball well.

On the other hand, he's injury prone, he has run out of gas late in the season (when the Phillies are just getting into gear), and, worst of all, he's a fly-ball pitcher who benefits mightily from the spacious, the-ball-has-little-carry confines of Petco Park, the best pitcher's park in the majors (last time I checked, Citizens Bank Park was the eighth best hitter's park in the majors). Baseball Prospectus is a primary source of my being a doubting Thomas (actually, he was three GMs before current GM Ruben Amaro), as they wax skeptical about the translation of Young's success into other parks (and that would have to worry most front offices). As a result, unless the pickings for the Phillies are so slim (it's doubtful they'll get Roy Halladay, Jake Peavy or Roy Oswalt, that they'd really want Erik Bedard or would dally by picking up former Phillies Vicente Padilla on waivers) or the price tag for young is so cheap (read: they won't have to give up any of the following prospects: Lou Marson, Jason Donald, Carlos Carrasco, Kyle Drabek, Joe Savery, Michael Taylor, Antonio Bastardo or Dominic Brown), they won't be pursuing Young. It's a bit too risky. (On the other hand, the Mets might be interested because the only parks that are more forbidding are named Yellowstone and Yosemite).

On the other hand, if he had Derek Lowe's sinker, they'd be rushing to get him, but throwing fly balls in CBP is not a recipe for success for a team that will contend and perhaps go deep into the playoffs. I'm sure that Ruben Amaro and the Phillies' scouts are digging deep and looking at every other team's starting pitching staff, and while I like Young, I'm not so sure he'd be a good fit in Philadelphia.

2 Comments:

Blogger Escort81 said...

Also, Young would miss playing with former PU basketball player Will Venable (son of former ML player Max Venable), who was called up from the Padres farm system recently.

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